Technology Regulation and Geopolitical Fragmentation
Other → Geopolitical Risk
| 2025-11-06 03:52:32
| 2025-11-06 03:52:32
Introduction Slide – Technology Regulation and Geopolitical Fragmentation
Navigating the New Era of Tech Regulation and Global Divisions
Overview
- Technology regulation is increasingly shaped by geopolitical rivalries, especially in the domains of AI, data flows, and frontier technologies.
- Understanding these dynamics is critical for risk analytics, as regulatory fragmentation can disrupt global supply chains, innovation, and market access.
- This presentation will cover the drivers of fragmentation, regulatory divergence, risks to multinationals, and the implications for global governance.
- Key insights include the rise of strategic fragmentation, regulatory arbitrage, and the urgent need for international guardrails to prevent technological decoupling.
Key Discussion Points – Technology Regulation and Geopolitical Fragmentation
Drivers and Implications of Regulatory Fragmentation
- Geopolitical competition, especially between the US and China, is driving divergent regulatory approaches to AI and data governance.
- Recent policy moves, such as the US Executive Order 14179 and the EU's AI Act, signal a shift toward strategic fragmentation and regulatory arbitrage.
- Risks include increased compliance burdens, restricted data flows, and the potential for a 'digital iron curtain' separating technology spheres.
- Implications for businesses include the need for localized compliance strategies and heightened operational risk in volatile regulatory environments.
Main Points
Graphical Analysis – Regulatory Fragmentation Index
Visualizing the Rise of Regulatory Fragmentation
Context and Interpretation
- This bar chart illustrates the increasing divergence in regulatory approaches across major jurisdictions (US, EU, China, and Rest of World) from 2020 to 2025.
- Trends show a steady rise in fragmentation, with the US and China moving toward more distinct regulatory frameworks.
- Risk considerations include the potential for regulatory arbitrage and increased compliance costs for multinationals.
- Key insights highlight the urgency for international cooperation to prevent further fragmentation and ensure global interoperability.
Figure: Regulatory Fragmentation Index by Region (2020-2025)
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{"Year": 2021, "Region": "US", "Index": 35},
{"Year": 2021, "Region": "EU", "Index": 30},
{"Year": 2021, "Region": "China", "Index": 25},
{"Year": 2021, "Region": "Rest of World", "Index": 20},
{"Year": 2022, "Region": "US", "Index": 40},
{"Year": 2022, "Region": "EU", "Index": 35},
{"Year": 2022, "Region": "China", "Index": 30},
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{"Year": 2023, "Region": "US", "Index": 45},
{"Year": 2023, "Region": "EU", "Index": 40},
{"Year": 2023, "Region": "China", "Index": 35},
{"Year": 2023, "Region": "Rest of World", "Index": 30},
{"Year": 2024, "Region": "US", "Index": 50},
{"Year": 2024, "Region": "EU", "Index": 45},
{"Year": 2024, "Region": "China", "Index": 40},
{"Year": 2024, "Region": "Rest of World", "Index": 35},
{"Year": 2025, "Region": "US", "Index": 55},
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}Analytical Summary & Table – Regulatory Fragmentation Drivers
Key Drivers and Implications of Regulatory Fragmentation
Key Discussion Points
- The main drivers of regulatory fragmentation include geopolitical rivalry, national security concerns, and divergent cultural values regarding privacy and data protection.
- Contextual interpretation: The table below summarizes the impact of these drivers on regulatory approaches in major jurisdictions.
- The significance of these metrics lies in their ability to predict future regulatory divergence and its impact on global business operations.
- Assumptions include continued geopolitical tension and the absence of major international agreements on technology governance.
Illustrative Data Table
This table outlines the primary drivers of regulatory fragmentation and their impact on major jurisdictions.
| Driver | US | EU | China |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical Rivalry | High | Medium | High |
| National Security | High | Medium | High |
| Privacy Values | Low | High | Medium |
| Regulatory Arbitrage | High | Low | Medium |
Graphical Analysis – Regulatory Fragmentation Flowchart
Context and Interpretation
- This flowchart illustrates the process by which geopolitical tensions lead to regulatory fragmentation and its impact on global technology governance.
- Trends show a clear progression from geopolitical rivalry to divergent regulatory approaches and, ultimately, to fragmented global technology ecosystems.
- Risk considerations include the potential for increased compliance costs and the risk of technological decoupling.
- Key insights highlight the need for international cooperation to prevent further fragmentation and ensure global interoperability.
Figure: Regulatory Fragmentation Flowchart
graph LR; classDef boxStyle fill:#0049764D,font-size:14px,color:#004976,font-weight:900; A[Geopolitical Rivalry] B[Divergent Regulatory Approaches] C[Fragmented Global Technology Ecosystems] class A,B,C boxStyle A -->|Escalation| B B -->|Implementation| C
Graphical Analysis – Regulatory Fragmentation Block Layers
Layered Impact of Regulatory Fragmentation
Context and Interpretation
- This block diagram illustrates the layered impact of regulatory fragmentation on technology governance, from geopolitical tensions at the top to operational risks for businesses at the bottom.
- Trends show that geopolitical tensions at the top layer cascade down to regulatory divergence and, ultimately, to operational risks for businesses.
- Risk considerations include the potential for increased compliance costs and the risk of technological decoupling.
- Key insights highlight the need for international cooperation to prevent further fragmentation and ensure global interoperability.
Figure: Layered Impact of Regulatory Fragmentation
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Geopolitical Tensions"] space A1["Bottom Layer
Operational Risks for Businesses"] end block columns 1 B["Middle Layer
Regulatory Divergence"] space B1["Bottom Layer
Compliance Costs"] end block columns 1 C["Middle Layer
Technological Decoupling"] space C1["Bottom Layer
Market Access Restrictions"] end A --> A1 B --> B1 C --> C1 classDef startBox fill:#0049764D,font-size:18px,color:#004976,font-weight:900; classDef endBox fill:#00497680,stroke:#333,stroke-width:3px,font-size:14px,color:white,font-weight:900; class A,B,C startBox class A1,B1,C1 endBox
Video Insight – Technology Regulation and Geopolitical Fragmentation
Visual demonstration related to Technology Regulation and Geopolitical Fragmentation.
Key Takeaways
- The video highlights the real-world impact of regulatory fragmentation on global technology governance and business operations.
- Key takeaway: Regulatory fragmentation is not just a policy issue but a strategic risk for businesses operating in multiple jurisdictions.
- Key takeaway: International cooperation is essential to prevent further fragmentation and ensure global interoperability.
- Key takeaway: Businesses must adapt to a fragmented regulatory landscape by developing localized compliance strategies and investing in operational resilience.
Conclusion
Summarize and conclude.
- Regulatory fragmentation is a growing risk for global technology governance, driven by geopolitical rivalry and divergent regulatory approaches.
- Businesses must adapt to a fragmented regulatory landscape by developing localized compliance strategies and investing in operational resilience.
- International cooperation is essential to prevent further fragmentation and ensure global interoperability.
- Recommendations include monitoring regulatory developments, engaging in international dialogues, and investing in risk analytics to navigate the evolving landscape.
